The outcry screams of Syria, plunging in a débâcle

 




Still up to the ongoing days, seems to be more and more urgent the demand of an international humanitarian effort in Syria. “Venus screams” from the depths of her womb, yelling a sharp appeal for peace as to cause the same troubling implosion they’re facing if no solution will be found, and, in the name of suffering women, their children, their families, long for healing the daunted wounded face of the most vulnerable people overcrowding this developing country, spoiled out and crashed by 10 years of war, a down-turning deterioration of injustices, government corruption and political mismanagement to which has been added never-ending terrorist attacks and the consequent outraging escalation of violence, the spread of the Coronavirus, the mountain toll of overlapping sanctions, mainly set forth by UK, USA and EU,  that, all together, have contributed to deteriorate the Syrian spiral of the economical crisis and financial bankruptcy.

The combined support of Russia and Iran, other actors involved in this dramatic scenery, of the Ba’athist government, effectively control of the largest part of the territories, divided in 14 directorates and 61 divisions, has greatly curtailed the likelihood of a political transition. The real  thrilling international threat is represented by a Lebanese Shia Islamist political party and Hezbollah attacks, (whose name means “Party of God”) supported by a military group. Since 2012, this armed fringe started to support Syrian government in its war against the internal opposition, which they describe as a Zionist plot aiming to destroy its tie with al-Assad in an anti-Israeli alliance. In fact, Syria is interested in regaining  its Golan Heights, from which they were dispossessed since the Six-Day war in 1967.

The geographical dislocation of ethnic communities in its territory is significant to understand the main internal divisions between the different minorities and, above all, the moderate and extremist ideologies. The most battered zones are the directorates of Idlib and that Aleppo, on the northwest side, and the “The Autonomous Administration of North East Syria” that profoundly differ from the rest of the country, where al-Assad keeps on undisputedly exerting its power. Idlib is hotly revendicated by Erdogan, as, losing this directorate would mean to be defeated in its fight against PKK and its overall control on Syria North West was founded on the “Syrian Salvation Government[1]. The other screwed directorate is Aleppo, whose capital, bearing the same name, is the second-largest city in the country. The Battle of Aleppo was the greatest military confrontation between the oppositions forces, Hezbollah, Shia militias, Russia, supporting Kurdish, and central Syrian government. In this bloody fight started in 2012, outflowing in the broader Syrian Civil War, lasted until 2017, when “The Interim Syrian Government”, the second internal opposition government, took over the directorate, fixing its headquarters in Azaz.  The large-scale disruptive escalation of clashes, marked by the inability of the international community to provide an escaping solution from this status quo, and its importance led combatants to christen it as "mother of battles” or "Syria's Stalingrad".[2]  

On the other side,  “The Autonomous administration of North East Syria”, also called Rojava, inhabited by Kurds, is a region just recognized de facto, representing about 9 – 10% of the total population, and the largest present ethnic minority, counting 1,9 mln people. This is one of the four parts of the “Greater Kurdistan” and, in their lands, Kurdish human rights are significantly undermined[3].  

Hezbollah’s deployed their militias in both Syria and Iraq to fight or train local forces against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), otherwise called Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), opposed to the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces), supported by UK and USA. Hezbollah political program is social protectionist, focused on securing basic services, such as building schools, equitable working conditions and other welfare measures. That’s why it’s debated its belonging to the so-called “terroristic organizations”, although since 2005 their activities have been officially condemned by EU, UN, and other countries, such as Canada, USA, UK and Netherland, pointing out them as “terroristic” ones, especially referring to the those perpetrated against Israel, in response to its claims to stretch out its dominance in the region, for committing human rights abusesgenocidewar crimes, and crimes against humanity, genocide and ethnic cleansing. In order to contrast this phenomenon, the UN implemented a Global Counter Terrorism Strategy (GCTS)[4], a unique global instrument adopted in 2006 for the improvement of the national, regional and international efforts, finding a commune approach among Member States aiming at taking practical steps for the enactment of a wide array of measures, ranging from strengthening State capacity to a better coordination within UN System and ensuring the preventive measures enactments and implementation of human rights.

Nowadays the Syrian Arab Republic is internationally targeted for having triggered chemical attacks, always denied, on Syrian civilians, as reported since 2012 by many Int Org, such as the UN,  the OPCW, HRW, and other Ngos, npos and media services, and internally corroborated by cited national opposition governments[5].

Sheding light on the internal politics of the Syrian Arab Republic, the current Ba’athist President Bashar al- Assad, in power since July 2000, chief of military forces, proclaimed its Constitution in 2012, that formalized a semi-presidential form of government, in which the President is the Head of State and the PM the head of cabinet. In all country is applied the Sharia law, comprehensive of Quran, Sunnah, Qiyas (analogical reasons) and IJMA (juridical consensus). After the parliamentary elections held in 2016, the results still confirming him as President, resulted highly delusional for USA, UK and Germany and analysts keep on raising concerns about the decay of the regime. If it will truly fall down, the economical and political conditions of the country could throw the population into the chaos, more than realizing the so much coveted improvements claimed by humanitarian organizations and put at stake by USA, Russia, UN and EU. 

The progressively changing approaches occurred during the different USA administrations show that after Obama relative disinterest in Syrian Affairs, except done for his engagement against ISIS crimes, the 2019 “Caesar Syrian Civilian Protection Act” imposed by Trump, come into force in June 2020 and that would “sunset” in Dec 2024, encompasses a set of sanctions against Syrian government in condemnation of the “war crimes” perpetrated against civilians, undermining and targeting infrastructures, military maintenances, and energy production (fuel shortages, especially from Gulf States) other than providing financial assistance in order to indirectly weaken Iranian and Russian influence in the country. Trump “maximum pressure” strategy let Syria sink in murky waters but has not been translated into a real progress on the political track, being ongoing diplomatic efforts still stagnant. Nowadays Biden administration, begun in Jan 2021, seems to be much more moderated but a new envoy to the country has not been appointed and the act has neither been amended nor repealed. Like before, Syrian affairs are looked through the lens of Iran and are considered more dangerous the situations occurring in Iraq and Yemen. In an overall conclusion of this excursus, a bilateral negotiation between US and Russia, under the aegis of UN,   seemed to be the only solution to solve at least the matter of the humanitarian aids entry points at Syrian borders. Negotiations finally undertaken.

Referring to Syrian Arab Republic foreign policy, there has been virulent tensions with Turkey, Lebanon, Israel and Iraq, all middle weight powers led by authoritarian regimes. Among its allied, instead, it can counts on Iran and the “Arab States of the Persian Gulf”, from which it gets significant financial contributions, as a result to its participation to the Persian Gulf War. In this context, especially after the implementation of international sanctions, Russia keeps on extending its influence and military role to the country but the conflict is still evolving and its support is far from be determinant not only for lack of sufficient financial resources but also because of its ties with UN and other Int Orgs. Anyhow, it strives to balance Syrian and  regional interlocutors and to find revenues sources  to offset the costs of its military intervention.

On one hand, Russia prefers a more direct protection of al-Assad regime that has won the war and now intends to stabilize the country; on the other one, Assad is not inclined to seek any peace deal fearing the undermining of the State sovereignty under international pressure. After ten years of civil war, Assad regime has been undoubtedly weakened and he’s preparing for next elections. Its fading influence, in fact, could leave free way to a Russian undesired disproportioned interference.

In 2020 Russia imposed the shutdown of three of the four entry points used as gateways for the providing nutritional and sanitary aids, menacing to oppose its veto power within the UNSC. Finally, on Friday 10 July 2021 has been issued the res. 2585, allowing UN to enter the crossing point of Bab Al-Hawa for one more year, in help of millions of civilians living in dreadful conditions[6]. The day after, EU High Representative Joseph Borrell welcomed this resolution, supporting the depoliticization of the delivery of humanitarian aids and refugees relief, often obliged to live in camps or prisons abroad. 

One of the main innovative measures adopted by UN in relation to the protection of Refugees, Stateless and IDPS, has been the “Global Compact on Refugees”[7], proclaimed in Dec 2018, providing a blueprint in the pursuit of a more solidary, predictable, shared and equitable responsibility among governments, Int Orgs, and the several stakeholders involved in the meetings and consultations on the matter,  to ensure that host communities get the support they need and are implemented all their rights. Currently, the vast majority of Syrian refugees living in the countryside with no or scarce resources in the neighbouring countries  - 1 of 20 refugees are accomodated in makeshift camps and prisons - have seen worsening their conditions because of the pandemic. UNHCR is currently providing humanitarian aids for essential needs and services, as primary health care and hospital treatments, livelihood support, protection against the most common risks, improving cooperation with national and local activities, and co-leads the “Regional Refugee and Resilience Plan” (3RP).

Although that, even after the UNSCR of the 10th of July, diplomatic efforts are still facing a general standstill but it’s not paralysed yet, as demonstrated by final Russia support within the UNSC for the opening of the last left entry point for the delivery of humanitarian aids stock, to which it was previously reluctant. Other ongoing international agreements are more focused on Damascus as a distribution point of investments, financial transactions, medical and food replenishment. 

In the recent past, other important UN resolutions on the protection of women and children involved in armed conflicts are the UNSCR 42396/2017, preventing counterfeiting, forgery or fraudulent use of IDPs, and UNSCR 2427/2018 about children and armed conflict, stressing the importance of the peace-keeping operations and the obligations of MS to comply with the UN Convention on the rights of the Child. On this topic, can’t be forgotten, the “Paris Principles”, declaring that children involved in criminal activities must primarily be considered as victims, not only perpetrators, and that the best interest of the child must be guaranteed in any case. They have the right of a restorative justice and rehabilitation[8].

Recently, in occasion of the Brussel IV Conference, co-chaired by EU-UN, held in June 2020, these two main Int Orgs started a joint action for long-standing financial investments in Syria and to get the region out of stagnation: it was announced the total grant amount sum of $ 2.2 bln for 2021 for this country and beyond $ 6,1 bln in loans. From June 2020 to Jan 2021 donors reported that grant contributions for 2020 reached $ 7.6 bln, exceeding 54% the original conference pledge and in 2021 25% more, going beyond $ 2.5 bln existing pledge. The three largest recorded donors has been Germany, USA and EU, accounting for 70% of the total contributions within the region, Syria being the main receiver. EU has never imposed a blanket ban on trade with this country: it’s still allowed a dual use of products in order to facilitate international peace and security process and prevent the proliferation of WMD. The main obstacles to be overcome, in facts, are embedded in the financial system and are structural in nature, Syria still being today a “red flag” for banks and other financial institutions.

By virtue of that, it’s unthinkable that the emergency could be solved just by donations of alms, without planning a new long-term strategic international approach and internal reforms more favourable to the defense of democratic rights and freedoms, in order to accelerate integration, to boost tolerance, to fight extremist violence and to make the nation self-starter and resilient.

About the direct and indirect impact of the unilateral measures, it must be specified that the first ones reached a pinnacle with the “Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act”. They directly targeted U.S.-Syria transactions and those with U.S.-made components or in U.S. $ (“primary measures”). The Caesar Act imposes then “secondary” measures targeting any Syrian transactions with foreign, third-party countries, institutions, companies or individuals. These last overtake any other unilateral measures imposed by EU or other countries and impede any chance of alleviation. Unilateral measures led to a sharp decline of all Syrian private sector exports, still being the import of oil and its derivatives about the 40% of the total, increasing Syria subordination to Iranian influence[9].

As indirect impact of unilateral measures, SYP exchange rate became strongly dependent on the flow of foreign aids, from Lebanese economy, and from the combatants financing. The complexities of the procedures implementing them are another reason for the significant transaction costs of derisking[10] and overcompliance imposed by foreign banks and companies that caused major difficulties in provisioning non designated products. No effective solutions have been put in place to deal with the consequences of these last practices for humanitarian goods, even in relation to UN agencies and Ngos[11].

These measures has caused during the ten years of war have caused an overall plummeting of 25.5% of GDP, an increase of the prices and raise of inflation.

Whilst EU, UK and U.S. sanctions regimes specifically envisage the possibility of licenses to allow otherwise sanctioned activities in the context of humanitarian work, these licenses are often reported as complicated and time consuming. The combined effect of the conflict, compliance concerns and the presence of financial sanctions has unintentionally eroded the ability for humanitarian actors to facilitate international payments addressed to Syria. These procedures and practices have hindered production, transportation and value chains, introducing high transaction costs and significantly reducing population resilience with a noteworthy impact plunging Syria’s into a vicious cycle, shackling it to foreign funds in order to get relief. The Syrian response often leans towards a voluntary boycott because, even where goods and financial transactions may be possible, the legal costs for undertaking due diligence and acquiring a license may be higher than the value of goods and services.

The UN 2019 Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) has set out the framework within which it’s  trying to respond to the large-scale humanitarian assistance emergency, on the basis of  prioritized goals by sectors. The HRP, based on deep assessments and analysis, has presented urgent funding requirements to address these aids. It is anchored to three strategic objectives: saving lives and alleviating suffering, enhancing protection and increasing resilience[12].

In the hope to reach specifically targeted agreements, several initiatives have been proposed, by the implementation of exceptions to sanctions, throughout gradual steps of changes in diplomatic and economic relations other than for financial aids: USA and EU has  proposed a phase 1 (diplomatic incentives for the re-establishment of diplomatic relations, participation in international forums, cultural exchange program and g a “white list” to channel financial transactions for trade not subject to sanctions);  a phase 2 for an official reconstruction assistance, (expanding existing funding, rebuilding infrastructures) and a phase 3 (lifting EU and USA sanctions). It has been argued that, across all the 3 phases,  the potential of snapback aftermaths, as the removal of the incentives, are inducted Syria to be hesitant to accept them and pushed it to ask for new and different agreements, before implementing internal reforms.

In conclusion, the main superpowers and Int Orgs are following an obstructed  pathway of grants with conditions, not only for the delivery of humanitarian aids but also for many other political and economical aspects, diplomatic entrenchments, disproportionate restrictions  in the name of  Hezbollah terrorism and Syrian central government stance, responding attacks against attacks, jeopardizing alliances with Russia. The main UN objectives, as ensuring safe conditions for displaced in Syria and those obliged to flee abroad, are not at all easy to be achieved.  Refugees and IDPs have also been at heightened risk of SGBV during the pandemic, many have been forced into survival sex or child marriages, and  family tensions have seen a spike increasE of these phenomena. In this aberrant situation, UNHCR offices are receiving 10 times more the usual number of calls for protection. Since Jan 2020, UNFPA has distributed personal protective equipment to protect health workers, essential hygiene and sanitary supplies, funds for women’s leadership, economic empowerment, gender-based violence programs and essential life-saving sexual and reproductive health services for nearly one million people in need Syria.

The global Usa and the international community strategy led, in a way or another, to confine Syria, following the motto “Assad must go”, in order to induce it in a political transition under a severe international pressure, as the weaker Syria is, the more dependent it will become, but just sanctions would never help to transform the country in a modern economy and to rebuild the middle class. Now that both armed Assad oppositions and central government itself are on the verge of collapse, many European and regional states have reopened their embassies in Damascus. Nevertheless the conflict is not over, the presence of Turkish and US coalition forces in northern and eastern Syria continue to deny the government a complete military victory. In the meanwhile, Israel keeps on carrying out airstrikes against Iranian and Lebanese Hezbollah inside Syria. In this  framework the several NGOs operating on the field, whose members often bravely don’t hesitate to put at risk their lives and to help the population to get out of limbo, run into huge hurdles in their attempts to implement their projects.

Thus, properly said diplomatic, intended as equal solutions in a perfect balance of interests of all the involved parties, are far from taking place. The implemented strategies adopted up to now are essentially made of sanctions aiming at producing a “chilling effect”, that subordinate the destiny of the country to hardly welcomed limitations and snapbacks, clearly insufficient to rebuild its capacities, leaving the whole country-system trapped in a network of rapidly changing alliances and essentially deepening its isolation. Finally, it can said for sure that the “hard line” could never be a good rescue gateway, especially if imposed to push government to get unshared solutions by reason of force majeure and more ad hoc solutions must be experimented to get out of this stalemate. 

 

Internet Sources:

https://www.ispionline.it/en/pubblicazione/dilemmas-debate-syria-sanctions-29626

https://www.syriahr.com/en/168805/

UNHCR - Syria emergency

https://undocs.org/en/A/RES/73/167

https://undocs.org/en/A/RES/68/200

https://www.right-docs.org

Op-ed: Put women at the centre of Syria crisis response | UN Women – Headquarters

 

 

Bibliography:

A path to conflict transformation in Syria – a framework for a phased approach”, Carter Center, Jan 2021

 

US and EU sanctions on Syria”, Carter Center, Sept 2020

 

“Supporting Syria and the region: Post Brussels Conference financial tracking”, Report 11, March 2021 http://eeas.europa.eu

 

Navigating humanitarian exceptions to sanctions against Syria challenges and recommendations”, Carter Center Report, 2020

 

Daher, Moret, “Invisible sanctions: how over-compliance limits humanitarian work on Syria challenges of fund transfer for Non-Profit Organizations working on Syria”, Impact, 2020

 

 

 

 

 



[1] Idlib is a directorate situated at the Turkish border, composed of a Jihadist population, sided with Turkish and USA, that financially support it. Since 2011 uprisings, it has been the focus of civilian violent turmoils evolved into an outright armed conflict opposed to the central government, for the conquest of the whole directorate, even after the UN Secretary General Kofi Annan closing of the controversy by the imposition of the ceasefire. In facts, soon, in 2015, followed the second Idlib Battle, set off by the al-Nusra Front and  al-Sham, that in 2017 finally re-captured the capital of the district. 

[2] The UN special envoy to Syria proposed to end of the war by granting autonomy to East Aleppo. The proposal was rejected by the Syrian government, hundreds of thousands of residents were displaced and the efforts made to provide aids to civilians and facilitate their evacuation were routinely disrupted by continued troubles and mistrust. Aleppo was condemned by UN for committing  war crimes, including the use of chemical weapons along with Syrian government forces, the use of barrel bombs by the Syrian Air Force, the dropping of cluster munitions on populated areas by Russian and Syrian armies,  summary indiscriminate executions of civilians and capture of soldiers by both sides. In 2016, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights pointed out this horrific events as "crimes of historic proportions", as it caused more than 31,000 people dead and destroyed the Old City of Aleppo, a UNESCO World Heritage site.

[3] Kurdish are persecuted and mistreated, no political parties are allowed for them, the use of their language is banned, it’s denied the right of name’s registration and Syrian nationality, their business is prohibited if they lack an Arabic name, their own public schools and educational materials are prohibited. After Rojava Revolution, central government is no longer in the position to enforce laws infringing international human rights and leaving Syrian civilians Stateless but these breaches are still occurring in practice.

[5] The attacks occurred in different areas of Syria, including Khan al-AssalJobarSaraqibAshrafiyat SahnayaKafr ZitaTalmenesSarmin and Douma. According with them, the deadliest attacks occurred in August 2013 (sarin attack in Ghouta, where were killed about 1800 people) and in April 2017 (sarin attack in Khan Shaykhun  where were killed about 90 people). The most common ones used agents as chlorine, sarin and sulphur. Almost half of these, between 2014 and 2018, were perpetrated by aircraft and less than a quarter from the ground, other than odd unclear methods. According to a 2019 Berlin research study made by  Global Public Policy Institute, chlorine was used in 91.5% of chemical attacks since 2012, when Obama said Syria has crossed the “red line”, so that, induced by Russia mediation, it had to start diplomatic talks with the USA. So, these took place but remained just speeches for the threat of a USA retaliation, and as many reliable media confirmed, it’s impossible to quantify the exact amount of chemical agents stored in Syrian arsenals. Also, the International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic, set up by the United Nations Human Rights Council in 2011, found that human rights violations occurred during the Syrian civil war, also by the use of chemical agents, such as sarin.

[6] According to HRW, 13,4 mln people are in need of humanitarian assistance, 6,7 mln IDPs, 5 mln refugees and asylum seekers, whose 4,8 live in host countries just this year, the highest numbers since the beginning of the war.

[7] The GCR has four parts: an introduction setting out the background, guiding principles, and objectives of the global compact; the Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework (CRRF), as agreed to by Member States in Annex I of the New York Declaration; a Programme of Action setting out concrete measures to help meeting the objectives of the compact, including: arrangements to share burdens and responsibilities through a Global Refugee Forum (held every four years), national and regional arrangements for specific situations, and tools for funding, partnerships, and data gathering and sharing; areas in need of support, from reception and admission, to meeting needs and supporting communities, to solutions; arrangements for follow-ups, reviews and meetings.

 

[8] Paris Principles definition of “child associated with an armed force or armed group”: “any person below 18 years of age who is or who has been recruited or used by an armed force or armed group in any capacity, including but not limited to children, boys and girls, used as fighters, cooks, porters, messengers, spies or for sexual purposes. It does not only refer to a child who is taking or has taken a direct part in hostilities”; Paris Principles definition of “child reintegration”: “the process through which children transition into civil society and enter meaningful roles and identities as civilians who are accepted by their families and communities in a context of local and national reconciliation. Sustainable reintegration is achieved when the political, legal, economic and social conditions needed for children to maintain life, livelihood and dignity have been secured. This process aims to ensure that children can access their rights, including formal and non-formal education, family unity, dignified livelihoods and safety from harm”.

 

[9] The lack of fuel had a significant negative impact on electricity production, transportation, heating, agricultural irrigation. More importantly, these imports pass through border crosspoints controlled by armed opposition groups (AOG), including jihadist and terrorist organizations according to UNSC resolutions on one side and pro-government of Syria (GoS) militias on the other.

[10] As “derisking” is intended ”the practice of financial institutions putting an end to relationships with clients considered to be at high risk, notably because the perceived risks of money laundering, terrorist financing or being a designated entity or an individual on an international sanctions list, while offering limited return in term of profitability”, see Invisible Sanctions: How Over-compliance Limits Humanitarian Work on Syria Challenges of Fund Transfer for Non-Profit Organizations Working on Syria,” Impact, 2000.

[11] According to the Res. 68/200 of Dec 2013, on “Unilateral economic measures as a means of political and economic coercion against developing countries” it’s urged “the international community to adopt urgent and effective measures to eliminate the use of unilateral economic coercion against developing countries that are not authorized by relevant organs of the UN or are inconsistent with the principles of international law as set forth in the UN Charter and that contravene the basic principles of the multilateral trading system,” condemning and rejecting them; furthermore, res. 73/167 of Dec 2018 added strong objections “to the extraterritorial nature of those measures which threaten the sovereignty of States, and in this context calls upon all Member States neither to recognize those measures nor to apply them, as well as to take administrative or legislative measures, as appropriate, to counteract the extraterritorial applications or effects of unilateral coercive measures”.

 

[12] The UN does not currently impose sanctions directly targeting Syria as a country or directly targeting the Syrian government. However, there are just few provisions impacting Syria: “Prohibition on trade in antiquities”-  (UNSCR) 2199 (2015) that prohibited any trade in antiquities removed from Syria since March 15, 2011; UNSCR 2199 was intended to preserve Syria’s cultural heritage following widespread reports of looting by the Islamic State group and criminal gangs; sanctions on the Islamic State group; UNSCR 2253 (2015) that imposes “sanctions on IS and Al-Qaeda”, including both IS as an organization and individual named IS members, and prohibits their trade and commerce. These U.N. sanctions will remain in force until the UNSC adopts new resolutions amending or repealing the existing provisions.

 

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